It's been so much longer than I'd prefer since I've last posted on this blog. I've been swamped with schoolwork, and I've got other responsibilities that take precedent.
To everyone that checks back once in a while to see if I've written anything, I haven't given up on this yet. I love baseball, and I love writing and talking about baseball almost as much. But my other duties have gotten in my way of actually watching most of these Reds games with a keen eye and an analyst's mindset. I don't want to write anything on a game that I couldn't devote my entire focus to. I watch the games regularly, but normally it's just on the TV while I'm reading something for class.
I don't want to give up on the blog after only one month. I'll post something next time I actually get three hours to myself to enjoy a good ballgame. Hopefully, that will be soon, so don't give up on me yet!
Sunday, April 29, 2007
Monday, April 16, 2007
Freel locked up through 2009; good or bad?
According to reds.com, Freel has been signed to a two-year extension until 2009. The monetary value hasn't yet been disclosed.
I'm really torn about this one. On one hand, I love Freel. He's the most fun guy on the roster to watch, and he brings that scrappy fire to the field that many players in the majors, let alone on the Reds, lack. I love his contact-hit, bunt, run, get-em-over-get-em-in philosophy to the game (as opposed to close-my-eyes-and-whale-and-pray-it-goes-over-the-wall). He's probably the only prototypical leadoff guy we've got.
On the other hand, though, he's 31 now, and by the time his contract expires, he'll be 33. He's nearing that cliff in the early-30s that players like him hit. Contact hitters and aggressive baserunners often see a sharp decline in their skills at this age. We might be seeing that already this year (.243 AVG, 4 SB through 12 games). His OBP is still .349, but with the way he plays defense and plays the game overall, I can't imagine him preventing that inevitable topple from the mountain for long.
Sluggers can play into their 40s because all they've got to do is press some weights (or shoot up, their choice), swing a bat as hard as they can, and transfer to first base or the American League when their brittle legs can't carry their Cro-Magnon bodies anymore to play athletically-minded defense. Guys like Rickey Henderson are an exception, but a rare exception.
See Ichiro. Three years removed from his record-breaking hit mark, his stock in fantasy leagues has fallen dramatically. Why? He's 33. Everyone is predicting his fall from the top very soon, if it hasn't already happened. So far, he's hitting .290. A pretty big fall from his .372 mark of 2004. It's early, sure, but even guys like Ichiro start their decline at some point, and scrappy contact hitters like Freel and Ichiro almost universally experience this much earlier than other players.
Not to mention, where are they going to play him? If Josh Hamilton continues to perform, you can't keep him out of the lineup (especially if Freel continues to struggle). Griffey's contract expires after 2008, but by that point, Jay Bruce should be about ready to come up. If Freel's contract ends up being a two-year, $2 million or $3 million contract, he's definitely worth keeping around as an 82-game guy. But expecting him to continue to perform at the level warranting a multimillion-dollar contract (as he will almost certainly get, given his popularity in Cincinnati--just see what Casey was getting, despite the fact that he couldn't hit for power and hit into about 500 double plays per season) is ludicrous. His current contract is two-years, $3 million. If everything doesn't stay status quo, he should be getting a cut. Nothing against Freel in terms of his personality or playing style, but we can't expect him to steal 40 bases a year and make a diving catch every game now that he's crossed the 30-year mark.
I'm really torn about this one. On one hand, I love Freel. He's the most fun guy on the roster to watch, and he brings that scrappy fire to the field that many players in the majors, let alone on the Reds, lack. I love his contact-hit, bunt, run, get-em-over-get-em-in philosophy to the game (as opposed to close-my-eyes-and-whale-and-pray-it-goes-over-the-wall). He's probably the only prototypical leadoff guy we've got.
On the other hand, though, he's 31 now, and by the time his contract expires, he'll be 33. He's nearing that cliff in the early-30s that players like him hit. Contact hitters and aggressive baserunners often see a sharp decline in their skills at this age. We might be seeing that already this year (.243 AVG, 4 SB through 12 games). His OBP is still .349, but with the way he plays defense and plays the game overall, I can't imagine him preventing that inevitable topple from the mountain for long.
Sluggers can play into their 40s because all they've got to do is press some weights (or shoot up, their choice), swing a bat as hard as they can, and transfer to first base or the American League when their brittle legs can't carry their Cro-Magnon bodies anymore to play athletically-minded defense. Guys like Rickey Henderson are an exception, but a rare exception.
See Ichiro. Three years removed from his record-breaking hit mark, his stock in fantasy leagues has fallen dramatically. Why? He's 33. Everyone is predicting his fall from the top very soon, if it hasn't already happened. So far, he's hitting .290. A pretty big fall from his .372 mark of 2004. It's early, sure, but even guys like Ichiro start their decline at some point, and scrappy contact hitters like Freel and Ichiro almost universally experience this much earlier than other players.
Not to mention, where are they going to play him? If Josh Hamilton continues to perform, you can't keep him out of the lineup (especially if Freel continues to struggle). Griffey's contract expires after 2008, but by that point, Jay Bruce should be about ready to come up. If Freel's contract ends up being a two-year, $2 million or $3 million contract, he's definitely worth keeping around as an 82-game guy. But expecting him to continue to perform at the level warranting a multimillion-dollar contract (as he will almost certainly get, given his popularity in Cincinnati--just see what Casey was getting, despite the fact that he couldn't hit for power and hit into about 500 double plays per season) is ludicrous. His current contract is two-years, $3 million. If everything doesn't stay status quo, he should be getting a cut. Nothing against Freel in terms of his personality or playing style, but we can't expect him to steal 40 bases a year and make a diving catch every game now that he's crossed the 30-year mark.
Sunday, April 15, 2007
Gameday 4/15: Reds @ Cubs (W 1-0)
In response to last night's question, no, the Reds could not hit Ted Lilly. But I guess it didn't really matter, did it?
I love a good pitcher's duel. Sometimes even more than a good slugfest. But I know I'm in the minority here. Still, when the Reds win, anything looks good.
When your pitcher is painting the black like Kyle Lohse was today, you don't need much offense to win a game. Castellini wanted to turn this team into one of pitching and defense. He seems to be succeeding at least in terms of pitching.
Kyle Lohse has been a nice surprise so far this year. Take away two bad pitches against the D-Backs, and he's been the ace of the staff this year. You can't have a much better day on the mound than he did today:
8 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 12 K (career high)
He was toying with the right-handers on that outside corner all day today. The placement of his fastball was impeccable, and his slider had just enough break on it to pile up a mountain of strikeouts. His performance after giving up a double and single in the 6th was something that we would never have dreamed of seeing from a Reds pitcher before '06. Going into the heart of the lineup, he struck out Jacque Jones swinging (who made David Ross look good with his wild flail at a ball out of the zone), Derek Lee looking, and got Michael Barrett to fly out to right.
He did benefit at times from the umpire's big strike zone, but there's still no doubting that he probably had his best game of his career tonight. In the 7th, he was still painting the corners and hitting 93 on the gun.
This is becoming a trend for the Reds: Standout pitching, mediocre hitting.
Ted Lilly looked just as sharp today as he did when he came into GABP. His curveball is devastating, and when he placed it well, the Reds had no chance, even if they would have been feeling good at the plate. Thankfully, he had a little trouble finding the zone at times, and had mounted up 101 pitches by the end of the 6th, leading to his early exit. Here's his line:
6 IP, 2 H, 1 R (1 ER), 1 BB, 10 K
Only three baserunners all game. Thankfully, the Reds handled the one walk well. Lilly is the prime pitcher to run on, with his sharp breaking ball and with Michael Barrett behind the plate. Even Conine stole a base without a throw. But the only one that mattered was Phillips' steal of second in the 4th. He would have even stolen third easily had Conine not hit it through the hole in the left side of the infield for the only run of the game.
Still, that was the Reds' last baserunner. After 12 games, the Reds have only four starters with a batting average over .250: Conine, Gonzalez, Griffey and Dunn. Hopefully, coming home will help the Reds turn it around at the plate. But with a lefty going for the Brewers tomorrow night, it doesn't look likely.
The Reds gave me a few scares, too. Phillips and Freel both looked like they could have suffered injuries today. They played through them (with Freel's looking to be more serious), but you never know when these kinds of things could pop up later in the season and just get worse.
The Reds come home to play the Brewers tomorrow night at 7:10. Eric Milton takes the hill against Chris Capuano. Let's see, a lefty on the mound for the Brewers that had a magnificent season last year against a struggling Reds offense that never seems to hit lefties well?
One tack into the loss column.
I love a good pitcher's duel. Sometimes even more than a good slugfest. But I know I'm in the minority here. Still, when the Reds win, anything looks good.
When your pitcher is painting the black like Kyle Lohse was today, you don't need much offense to win a game. Castellini wanted to turn this team into one of pitching and defense. He seems to be succeeding at least in terms of pitching.
Kyle Lohse has been a nice surprise so far this year. Take away two bad pitches against the D-Backs, and he's been the ace of the staff this year. You can't have a much better day on the mound than he did today:
8 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 12 K (career high)
He was toying with the right-handers on that outside corner all day today. The placement of his fastball was impeccable, and his slider had just enough break on it to pile up a mountain of strikeouts. His performance after giving up a double and single in the 6th was something that we would never have dreamed of seeing from a Reds pitcher before '06. Going into the heart of the lineup, he struck out Jacque Jones swinging (who made David Ross look good with his wild flail at a ball out of the zone), Derek Lee looking, and got Michael Barrett to fly out to right.
He did benefit at times from the umpire's big strike zone, but there's still no doubting that he probably had his best game of his career tonight. In the 7th, he was still painting the corners and hitting 93 on the gun.
This is becoming a trend for the Reds: Standout pitching, mediocre hitting.
Ted Lilly looked just as sharp today as he did when he came into GABP. His curveball is devastating, and when he placed it well, the Reds had no chance, even if they would have been feeling good at the plate. Thankfully, he had a little trouble finding the zone at times, and had mounted up 101 pitches by the end of the 6th, leading to his early exit. Here's his line:
6 IP, 2 H, 1 R (1 ER), 1 BB, 10 K
Only three baserunners all game. Thankfully, the Reds handled the one walk well. Lilly is the prime pitcher to run on, with his sharp breaking ball and with Michael Barrett behind the plate. Even Conine stole a base without a throw. But the only one that mattered was Phillips' steal of second in the 4th. He would have even stolen third easily had Conine not hit it through the hole in the left side of the infield for the only run of the game.
Still, that was the Reds' last baserunner. After 12 games, the Reds have only four starters with a batting average over .250: Conine, Gonzalez, Griffey and Dunn. Hopefully, coming home will help the Reds turn it around at the plate. But with a lefty going for the Brewers tomorrow night, it doesn't look likely.
The Reds gave me a few scares, too. Phillips and Freel both looked like they could have suffered injuries today. They played through them (with Freel's looking to be more serious), but you never know when these kinds of things could pop up later in the season and just get worse.
The Reds come home to play the Brewers tomorrow night at 7:10. Eric Milton takes the hill against Chris Capuano. Let's see, a lefty on the mound for the Brewers that had a magnificent season last year against a struggling Reds offense that never seems to hit lefties well?
One tack into the loss column.
Saturday, April 14, 2007
Gameday 4/14: Reds @ Cubs (L 7-0)
Sometimes, it hurts not to be able to watch a game on TV (especially when WGN and STO both have the Indians/White Sox game on...).
Other times, I consider my mental health, and I think how great it is that I wasn't subject to the torment. The same, old torment.
If the early stages of the '07 season have taught us anything, it's that not a lot has changed since last year. That is, the media needs to rethink its definition of this Reds team, and perhaps some fans need to do the same.
This team has the most overrated offense in the majors. It baffles me to no end every time I hear the media say, "Well, their pitching is suspect, but with that lineup, maybe it won't matter." Say what?! This lineup used to be fearsome, at least in the sense that anyone from top to bottom could jack one out of the park. This team could never hit with runners in scoring position. This team could never avoid those devastating double plays.
Thank God we've got a stable front end of the rotation and a couple of servicable bullpen guys, or else this team would be vying with the Nationals for the crown of futility. Not only is this team not hitting with scoring position, it isn't hitting in any sense of the word.
This so-called fearsome lineup is hovering around the middle of the pack (16th) in team average and runs (12th). If it weren't for guys like Conine and Gonzalez coming in and providing a surprise spark to the lineup, this team would be lucky to breach the top 20.
Against a floundering and desperate Cubs team that was languishing at 3-6 coming into the game after a $200-million spending spree this past offseason, the Reds could manage only three hits going into the ninth inning.
I wish I could have seen the game on TV, because I don't like to miss any of Arroyo's starts. Today, however, he didn't seem to have the command of his last two starts:
6.2 IP, 8 H, 6 R (2 ER), 3 BB, 4 K
A Conine error in the seventh sparked a five-run rally that iced this one. Unfortunate that one of the only guys in the lineup that consistently is producing gives up such a killer error.
The bullpen, after a few solid appearances against the D-Backs, couldn't get the job done today. Coutlangus walked the only batter he faced to load the bases, and Santos promptly gave up a bases-clearing double to Derek Lee. Nothing worked today. Just one of those days that we're seeing a few too many of lately.
You have to give credit to Rich Hill, though. He's been stellar this season, and though I can't gauge it well since I wasn't watching the game on TV, he likely played a huge part in the Reds' offensive failures today. In his two starts, he's accrued only four hits and one run over 14 innings. With Zambrano's early struggles, he's risen up to carry their rotation so far.
It's early in the season, I know. There's no telling what this team could do as they get warmed up (figuratively and literally). But after the offensive disappointments last season, I'm not holding my breath for anything.
The rubber game is tomorrow at 1:05. Kyle Lohse goes up against Ted Lilly. As long as Lohse doesn't throw a couple fat ones over the plate like he did against the D-Backs, he should be OK. Whether the Reds can hit Lilly this time, however, is another story.
Other times, I consider my mental health, and I think how great it is that I wasn't subject to the torment. The same, old torment.
If the early stages of the '07 season have taught us anything, it's that not a lot has changed since last year. That is, the media needs to rethink its definition of this Reds team, and perhaps some fans need to do the same.
This team has the most overrated offense in the majors. It baffles me to no end every time I hear the media say, "Well, their pitching is suspect, but with that lineup, maybe it won't matter." Say what?! This lineup used to be fearsome, at least in the sense that anyone from top to bottom could jack one out of the park. This team could never hit with runners in scoring position. This team could never avoid those devastating double plays.
Thank God we've got a stable front end of the rotation and a couple of servicable bullpen guys, or else this team would be vying with the Nationals for the crown of futility. Not only is this team not hitting with scoring position, it isn't hitting in any sense of the word.
This so-called fearsome lineup is hovering around the middle of the pack (16th) in team average and runs (12th). If it weren't for guys like Conine and Gonzalez coming in and providing a surprise spark to the lineup, this team would be lucky to breach the top 20.
Against a floundering and desperate Cubs team that was languishing at 3-6 coming into the game after a $200-million spending spree this past offseason, the Reds could manage only three hits going into the ninth inning.
I wish I could have seen the game on TV, because I don't like to miss any of Arroyo's starts. Today, however, he didn't seem to have the command of his last two starts:
6.2 IP, 8 H, 6 R (2 ER), 3 BB, 4 K
A Conine error in the seventh sparked a five-run rally that iced this one. Unfortunate that one of the only guys in the lineup that consistently is producing gives up such a killer error.
The bullpen, after a few solid appearances against the D-Backs, couldn't get the job done today. Coutlangus walked the only batter he faced to load the bases, and Santos promptly gave up a bases-clearing double to Derek Lee. Nothing worked today. Just one of those days that we're seeing a few too many of lately.
You have to give credit to Rich Hill, though. He's been stellar this season, and though I can't gauge it well since I wasn't watching the game on TV, he likely played a huge part in the Reds' offensive failures today. In his two starts, he's accrued only four hits and one run over 14 innings. With Zambrano's early struggles, he's risen up to carry their rotation so far.
It's early in the season, I know. There's no telling what this team could do as they get warmed up (figuratively and literally). But after the offensive disappointments last season, I'm not holding my breath for anything.
The rubber game is tomorrow at 1:05. Kyle Lohse goes up against Ted Lilly. As long as Lohse doesn't throw a couple fat ones over the plate like he did against the D-Backs, he should be OK. Whether the Reds can hit Lilly this time, however, is another story.
Tuesday, April 10, 2007
Gameday 4/10: Reds @ Diamondbacks (L 5-4) (11 innings)
It's late, I'm tired, and I've got class in the morning, so I'll only address some of the immediately pressing things on my mind about this game.
But I'm also angry, so I'll vent my ire in a lengthy post tomorrow. I've got a lot to say about this Reds team. And not much of it will make fans happy, that's for sure.
But two things right now:
1. Congratulations are in order to Josh Hamilton on his first hit in the bigs: a two-run homer. Not much can top that. I'd say the boys in red owe him a drink, but perhaps an O'Doul's would be better for Josh.
2. Jerry Narron should publicly apologize to Reds Nation for taking off the bunt in the 11th inning. I don't care that Edwin Encarnacion has never had a bunt in his major-league career. I don't care that his first attempt didn't look so good (he was jammed by a pitch! Of course the bunt's going to look bad!). If you're a major-league ballplayer, you need to know how to bunt, or you do not deserve to be on the team. Chris Welsh (who was absolutely belittled by Thom Brennaman in the booth tonight) said that perhaps the bunt was taken off because it was a 3-1 count and Narron probably figured that Cruz would feed him an easy fastball. All the more reason to bunt! If he's going to throw a fastball right down Broadway, any hack can stick a piece of wood in the way and put the ball in play. I'd say the Reds should be 5-3 right now, had Ross not been up to the plate next, ready to flail at the ball like an epileptic fish.
But I'll elaborate on point number two tomorrow. There's a lot to talk about.
But I'm also angry, so I'll vent my ire in a lengthy post tomorrow. I've got a lot to say about this Reds team. And not much of it will make fans happy, that's for sure.
But two things right now:
1. Congratulations are in order to Josh Hamilton on his first hit in the bigs: a two-run homer. Not much can top that. I'd say the boys in red owe him a drink, but perhaps an O'Doul's would be better for Josh.
2. Jerry Narron should publicly apologize to Reds Nation for taking off the bunt in the 11th inning. I don't care that Edwin Encarnacion has never had a bunt in his major-league career. I don't care that his first attempt didn't look so good (he was jammed by a pitch! Of course the bunt's going to look bad!). If you're a major-league ballplayer, you need to know how to bunt, or you do not deserve to be on the team. Chris Welsh (who was absolutely belittled by Thom Brennaman in the booth tonight) said that perhaps the bunt was taken off because it was a 3-1 count and Narron probably figured that Cruz would feed him an easy fastball. All the more reason to bunt! If he's going to throw a fastball right down Broadway, any hack can stick a piece of wood in the way and put the ball in play. I'd say the Reds should be 5-3 right now, had Ross not been up to the plate next, ready to flail at the ball like an epileptic fish.
But I'll elaborate on point number two tomorrow. There's a lot to talk about.
Monday, April 9, 2007
Gameday 4/9: Reds @ Diamondbacks (L 3-2)
Griffey provides Ross with his first RBI of the year.Ross returns the favor by going 0-for-2.
He was ruthless in his criticism of the Reds' performance tonight, and for a good reason. The Reds should have won this game tonight. The D-Backs issued six walks. The Reds left nine men on base. Hits with men in scoring position? One. Arizona reliever Tony Perez wasn't even in the same hemisphere as the strike zone for his first seven pitches, yet the Reds could manage only one walk and no hits off the guy.
You've got to feel sorry for Bronson Arroyo. For the second straight start, he pitches an absolute gem for five innings before becoming somewhat hittable (7 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, no-hitter thru four). His curveball was just as nasty as it was against the Cubs. Yet the Reds still could muster only two measly runs against Doug Davis - a guy who was second in the majors last season in walks and did nothing to quell that reputation tonight.
There just always seems to be that one guy that drags the ship under every game. The disturbing thing is that it always seems to be a different guy. You can't have a much worse game than Adam Dunn did tonight. I've been impressed by his performance so far this season, but all night tonight, he hit infield practice to Orlando Hudson. Four ground balls, two double plays. Ryan Freel had a pretty abysmal game, too, managing to put the ball in play only once in his four at-bats. When your leadoff hitter isn't getting on, it's not easy to win ball games.
On the other side, Jeff Conine and Alex Gonzalez continue to perform consistently out of the 6 and 7 holes - which continues to get flushed down the toilet by Ross' massive .071 batting average (congrats, Ross, on your first RBI of the year, on a weak popup to short right field that forced Griffey to run so hard to the plate that you could almost hear the hamstring shredding).
Phillips had his first good game of the year, as well, in hitting two singles, stealing a base, and driving one deep to the wall in left for the final out of the game. Still, runs? Zero.
The Reds showed good patience at the plate in drawing their six walks, but as the games go by, I'm becoming increasingly convinced that they keep the bats on their shoulders simply because swinging at the pitches isn't going to produce anything.
The Reds owe Arroyo some drinks at the hotel bar tonight after that embarrassing performance. Lots of drinks. Anything to make him forget that he couldn't get the win tonight.
Kyle Lohse goes up against some guy named Edgar Gonzalez tomorrow night. If the Gnats could get seven hits off this guy in five innings, the Reds had better be making some fireworks.
Don't bring up Bailey!
I just read a brief blog post by John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer detailing Homer Bailey's first start in AAA Louisville this year, pitching against Toledo. For those of you with lazy fingers, here was his line:
5 1/3 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 4 K
John Fay seems to think that this start will cause some serious commotion among fans. Really? It's not like the kid just pitched a complete-game shutout. Giving up only one hit is nice, but going only 5 1/3 innings and giving up three walks in the Limbo League while walking three isn't enough to earn you a callup. Especially if you're going to be the cornerstone of this franchise next year.
I'm not bashing Bailey here. It's a good start. But this only goes to reinforce my long-standing position on the matter. Bailey should not be up here until at least the All-Star break. 2007 is not meant to be the Reds' year (at least on paper). Hold out for 2009, when he's mowing down batters, Joey Votto is rocketing balls off the batter's eye, and Jay Bruce is on the verge of a callup.
Regardless of how bad Milton is (and I know, he's bad - frighteningly bad), patience is the key here. The last thing we want is to rush Bailey and toss away one of our best pitching prospects in a long time.
This is the kind of care you have to take with the #5-rated prospect according to Baseball America. Number five! It's something special when you've got someone in the top 1% of all of minor league baseball. I get a warm, fuzzy feeling just thinking about it, and if you don't, check your pulse, Reds fans. He's getting close to lighting up the GABP mound.
He's just not there yet.
I'll post later tonight after the Reds have laid the smackdown on the Snakes.
5 1/3 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 4 K
John Fay seems to think that this start will cause some serious commotion among fans. Really? It's not like the kid just pitched a complete-game shutout. Giving up only one hit is nice, but going only 5 1/3 innings and giving up three walks in the Limbo League while walking three isn't enough to earn you a callup. Especially if you're going to be the cornerstone of this franchise next year.
I'm not bashing Bailey here. It's a good start. But this only goes to reinforce my long-standing position on the matter. Bailey should not be up here until at least the All-Star break. 2007 is not meant to be the Reds' year (at least on paper). Hold out for 2009, when he's mowing down batters, Joey Votto is rocketing balls off the batter's eye, and Jay Bruce is on the verge of a callup.
Regardless of how bad Milton is (and I know, he's bad - frighteningly bad), patience is the key here. The last thing we want is to rush Bailey and toss away one of our best pitching prospects in a long time.
This is the kind of care you have to take with the #5-rated prospect according to Baseball America. Number five! It's something special when you've got someone in the top 1% of all of minor league baseball. I get a warm, fuzzy feeling just thinking about it, and if you don't, check your pulse, Reds fans. He's getting close to lighting up the GABP mound.
He's just not there yet.
I'll post later tonight after the Reds have laid the smackdown on the Snakes.
Sunday, April 8, 2007
Gameday 4/8: Pirates @ Reds (L 6-3)
That sick feeling you've got in your stomach.Sometimes you just have a feeling it's not your day.
Today, it was Eric Milton.
Being out of town in Pittsburgh to visit family this weekend, I wasn't up to date on the pitching probables of the series. Imagine how I felt when I heard who was scheduled to get his first start after coming off the disabled list.
With every pitch that Milton threw, I felt the rising urge to rush to the bathroom and vomit until the Reds came up to bat. Just so I wouldn't have to watch another curveball dip into the middle of the strike zone.
Believe me, I knew the Reds were going to lose this game even before the first pitch was thrown. You only have to watch so many home runs and gap shots against a pitcher before you become a certified clairvoyant. Bottom line: Milton is garbage. I wish we had someone we could bring up from the minors to replace him (and again, Bailey doesn't count). Anyone who could just eat up some innings, and a sinker would be a plus. Just someone who knows how to throw the ball in the lower half of the zone. Milton never learned how to do that. Chest to waist is his strike zone. Even his curveballs dip into the zone rather than out of it. His fastball has no movement on it.
Until the fifth inning, he is semi-servicable. He can get you outs and usually avoid getting the team blown out of the water. But by the start of the sixth, that bullpen phone had better be ringing.
Case in point:
5.2 IP, 10 H, 4 R (all earned), 1 BB, 6 K
He held the hapless Bucs scoreless for three innings, but then one in the fourth, two in the fifth, and one in the sixth before Narron decided that 10 hits and four runs was enough. The Pirates managed only two more hits for the rest of the game: two fluke opposite-field home runs that seemed to carry 30 feet farther than they would have on a normal day.
Still, the Reds didn't give Milton much support. Remaining a model of inconsistency, the Reds had three hits until they came out of their shells in the seventh inning. Phillips has been a particular disappointment. I thought this was going to be his breakout year, and it may still be. But with a .136 average going into the first road trip of the season, he hasn't convinced anyone yet.
The "stopgaps", Conine and Gonzalez, have been pleasant surprises, however. They're not lighting up the scoreboard, but they're producing a lot better than I thought they would. Conine, at .357, leads all Reds who have started games and is tied for second on the team in RBI (4), and Gonzalez, at .350, is hitting over 100 points more than his career average (not to mention the obvious defensive upgrade from Felipe Lopez). But hitting sixth and seventh, respectively, means that if they get on base, no one's going to be knocking them in.
The Reds head west to play the D-Backs tomorrow at 9:40. Thankfully, they'll miss Brandon Webb, and Arroyo is scheduled to get the start in the first game. If he's throwing his curveball like he was on Wednesday, you can pencil in the win.
Sometimes you just have a feeling, you know?
Wednesday, April 4, 2007
Gameday 4/4: Cubs @ Reds (L 4-1)
Adam Dunn doing what he does best: contributeto the Reds' 4-to-12 groundout-to-flyout ratio.
I hope those bats kept the Reds' shoulders nice and warm tonight, because it didn't look like they brought them up there to hit Ted Lilly's pitches.
Lilly didn't have befuddling stuff on the mound. He had three pitches from what I could see: a fastball, a changeup, and a curveball. He changes speeds very well, and his curveball has a sharp dip, but for the first several innings, the Reds let too many fastballs go by. Lilly is a guy that you have to feast on early. He threw a lot of get-ahead fastballs, but the Reds just sat there with the bats on their shoulders. Once they finally decided that they have to swing the bats to score runs, Lilly was dialed in with his pitch placement.
It didn't help that the wind pulled back two Reds homers, easily (Ross and Phillips) and maybe three (Hatteberg). But again, this team needs to learn how to hit with runners on base, and how to GET on base. Almost every Red was trying to hit the ball into the air. The Cubs never really hit the ball very hard, save for a couple of hits. They just punched the ball hard enough through the holes, and they hit with runners on base. That's how you win ball games. Ty Cobb once lamented the death of the "science" of baseball--bunts, stealing bases, and "hitting it where they ain't". The Reds clearly need to go back to science class.
For having such a "vaunted" offense, this team clearly has to get all its work done with the first five hitters of the order, because Conine, Gonzalez, Ross and the pitcher aren't going to get the job done. Freel didn't have a good game, setting the tone for the game by striking out looking in the first at-bat of the game. In his expected "breakout" year, Phillips has yet to get a hit. The only people producing in this lineup are the 3-4-5 hitters, and you can debate Encarnacion's production.
But on a positive note, how about Bronson Arroyo? He had some nasty stuff tonight. Did Dice-K teach him the gyroball? His curveball and slider were breaking a foot across the plate. As the game wore on, the break started to disappear, but for five-plus innings, he had Cy Young stuff. He had a little trouble placing his fastball and changeup at times, especially early on, but if there was any star in this game, it was him. And how about the bunt he dropped behind Lilly? Bonus points for Bronson there.
And speaking of bunts, how about that beautiful no-play in the 4th? Nice to see Ross decided to arrange a pow-wow around the ball rather than catch it. And when he did decide to play some baseball, he threw it TO THE WRONG BASE! In that situation, if you are dumb enough to let the ball drop due to lack of communication (that was Ross' ball), you need to turn around and tap home plate. Ramirez was far enough from the plate that Ross could have gotten there first had he snapped his ankle and dragged his helpless body there.
We're only two days into the season, but I'm already getting infuriated with Ross. He barely hit .200 after his surprising start last year, and he's starting the season by flailing away aimlessly at inside fastballs and sliders away. He almost hit a home run, which could have redeemed him a bit, but just like everyone else on this team, he's going up there to crush the ball. Choke up, keep your hands back, and hit the ball into the hole. Get on base, Cincinnati, get on base!
On a final note, my hatred toward Cubs fans only intensified with this game. It's not a good sign when you can't tell what's going on in the game by closing your eyes and just listening to the crowd. It was a nice crowd for a 30-degree weeknight with snow flurries, but I would have rather seen nothing but four Reds fans in the stands than 10,000 Cub fans. Screaming, festering Cub fans...
Kyle Lohse takes the hill tomorrow night. Looks like another winter wonderland at Great American. Let's try to at least make the fan ratio 3:1. It would be a start.
Tuesday, April 3, 2007
The best damn sports book, period
The Reds were off today, I've been running on little sleep the past few days, and unless you want me to divulge the intricacies of today's Alexander High School vs. New Lexington High School game in all its inconsequential glory, I'm going to leave you with this vital tidbit:
Read Now I Can Die in Peace by the great Bill Simmons.
Buy it, borrow it, steal it, download it. Do whatever you must to get your hands on this wonderful, riotous jewel of American sports literature. I'm only 70 pages into it, and it's already the most entertaining book I've ever read. And I'm not even a Sox fan. I can't believe I put off buying it for two years. If you don't laugh out loud at least once at each editorial within this book, you might want to get your head checked.
Funny, critical, informative, candid, and an absolute must-have for any sports fan.
I've got the 2007 ESPN Pro Football Almanac en route from the great folks over at Amazon. I'm not going to have a life for the next five months, I swear.
Monday, April 2, 2007
The Gators were the better team
The Gators hoist the National Championship trophy.Thankfully, Noah's ugly mug is well-hidden.
It's as simple as that. In the 2007 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship tonight in Atlanta, the Gators bullied the Buckeyes, and they did it with style.
This is actually the first bracket I've ever filled out in which I've picked the right two teams in the championship game and the right champion. I figured, going into the tournament, that as long as the Gators had gotten over their late-season slump, they'd be unstoppable in the tournament. They certainly made me doubt them at times, however, as they played with little passion in the first few games. It's good to act like you've been there before, but they sometimes took it a little too far.
I'm not a Gators fan. I'm not a Bucks fan (please, hold your fire until I've finished). But I rooted for the Bucks because I can't stand Joakim Noah. I like a team with swagger, not a team with arrogance. Noah is arrogant. You can see it in his face, his eyes, when he makes a crucial basket. I couldn't stand to watch Al Horford do his little "dance" in front of the camera when he scored on the fast-break late in the game. Unless it's the Reds or Bengals, or a team I genuinely hate is the opponent, I will never root for a team to repeat as champions. I don't have it in me pull for the Goliath.
That said, however, the Gators earned this win, beating the Bucks in nearly every facet of the game. They ran the most pristine, textbook pick-and-rolls, and the Baby Bucks were just too exhausted to rotate over in time to cover the open man.
Oden is showing me game after game that he's just not ready for the NBA yet. He'll probably go early in the first round of the draft, but he doesn't deserve it. He certainly has tremendous upside. He has a beautiful hook. He's a beast under the basket. Trying to shoot over his extended arms is like trying to pole vault over the Empire State Building.
But too often, his head isn't in the game. He refuses to kick the ball out for the three, even when he's covered by three men. He'll usually find a way to jam the ball in, but there are too many times that he resorts to the hook when all he has to do is pass it out to Conley or Butler. He tries to do everything himself, even when he's been out on the floor for 18 consecutive minutes. He's surrounded by some of the best young guards in the nation, and he continues to keep the wave of hype alive by trying to do too much. Defensively, despite his tremendous ability to block shots and grab the contested rebound (when he isn't completely exhausted), he refuses to rotate over when the other team executes a pick. And for this reason, the Gators knocked down three after three, only going one-on-one with Oden when he was exhausted.
The OSU guards, who have relied on the three-pointer all season for nearly 1/3 of their points (despite Oden's consistent and highly-praised production), couldn't find the basket from the perimeter, going 4-for-23. At times, I felt clueless as to why Coach Matta didn't change up the gameplan a little more, given the fact that the Gators are number-two in the nation when it comes to defending the three. Perhaps utilize the speed of the guards to drive and kick out (something that Conley does to perfection). The three has always been a strength of the Bucks, but once the Gators took that away, they tried to rely on Oden to make up for the lost production, and once he got tired, it was all over.
This is to take nothing away from the Gators. They have the most complete team in all of college basketball. Green, Humphrey, and Brewer are beasts from nearly anywhere on the court, and give them more than a foot of space, they'll knock down a three. As I said before, Florida executed some of the most beautiful pick-and-rolls I've ever seen, and despite the Bucks' hunger for revenge (for the BCS Championship, for the 30-point loss in Gainesville earlier this season), fatigue just proved to be too much for them. Florida had them running all over the court, and they never took a bad shot. Simple equation for winning basketball.
Florida was the better team tonight. They were the more experienced team, the more energetic team, and the only championship-caliber team on the floor.
Now, bring on the firing squad.
Yes, Virginia, there is October baseball
And could it be coming to Cincinnati in '07? Maybe.
Wow, did I just say that?
Perhaps I was a little harsh on this team in my first post. Let me introduce myself. I am a cynic. Pure and simple. And this team has done nothing over the past six years to show me that it has any chance in Hell of playing into October.
That said, this is a new year. After a glimpse of our '07 Reds in a game that actually counted, a 5-1 win over the Cubs (who somehow seemed to find a way to break into Fort Knox this past winter), does it look like we've finally got a team to uncork the bubbly come autumn?
Probably not. But then again, this division is probably the weakest in baseball outside of the AL West. As Jon Heyman of SI.com put it in his article of preseason predictions, anyone could finish first and last in this division. Strange, perhaps, that he chose the Reds to finish in first with the Astros in last? Upon second glance, maybe not. Not to say that the Reds are even half the team that the Mets or Tigers are this season. But you take advantage of your situation, and if there is any year for this team to overachieve in the NL Central, it's this year.
The Cardinals are the stalwart of the division, but they're no behemoth from top to bottom, especially when it comes to pitching. The Brewers are the popular dark horse pick to win the division, but their inexperience could be their downfall (see: '06 Indians) or their strength (see: '06 Tigers). The Cubs got Alfonso Soriano, who scares the hell out of me every time he steps to the plate, but their pitching is also suspect.
The Astros have only gotten older, and they are still one of the lightest-hitting teams in the league. Don't even talk to me about the Pirates.
So could the Reds win? They certainly have almost zero chance of winning it all, but the division really isn't out of reach. Today's game certainly gave me some hope. And if I can gain some hope from seeing this team, I can only imagine that they're already printing the pennants and t-shirts in Cincy.
Wow, did I just say that?
Perhaps I was a little harsh on this team in my first post. Let me introduce myself. I am a cynic. Pure and simple. And this team has done nothing over the past six years to show me that it has any chance in Hell of playing into October.
That said, this is a new year. After a glimpse of our '07 Reds in a game that actually counted, a 5-1 win over the Cubs (who somehow seemed to find a way to break into Fort Knox this past winter), does it look like we've finally got a team to uncork the bubbly come autumn?
Probably not. But then again, this division is probably the weakest in baseball outside of the AL West. As Jon Heyman of SI.com put it in his article of preseason predictions, anyone could finish first and last in this division. Strange, perhaps, that he chose the Reds to finish in first with the Astros in last? Upon second glance, maybe not. Not to say that the Reds are even half the team that the Mets or Tigers are this season. But you take advantage of your situation, and if there is any year for this team to overachieve in the NL Central, it's this year.
The Cardinals are the stalwart of the division, but they're no behemoth from top to bottom, especially when it comes to pitching. The Brewers are the popular dark horse pick to win the division, but their inexperience could be their downfall (see: '06 Indians) or their strength (see: '06 Tigers). The Cubs got Alfonso Soriano, who scares the hell out of me every time he steps to the plate, but their pitching is also suspect.
The Astros have only gotten older, and they are still one of the lightest-hitting teams in the league. Don't even talk to me about the Pirates.
So could the Reds win? They certainly have almost zero chance of winning it all, but the division really isn't out of reach. Today's game certainly gave me some hope. And if I can gain some hope from seeing this team, I can only imagine that they're already printing the pennants and t-shirts in Cincy.
Gameday 4/2: Cubs @ Reds (W 5-1)
Pretty tough to tell which team on the field had spent in excess of $300 million this offseason, wasn't it?
The game really couldn't have gone much better for the Reds. They pitched well, they hit well (most of the time), and they played solid defense. Best of all, we didn't have to hear a peep out of those fair-weather yuppie Cubs fans that infest every city that the Cubs visit (let's get one thing out right away: I hate most Cub fans. Honestly, I respect those who really love the team, follow them, and know their baseball. But there are far too many Cub fans in this world that just pick them because they've got a nice ballpark and every other goddamn uneducated person in the world that doesn't have a favorite team just picks the Cubs by default. No disrespect to those of you who fall into the former category. But if your favorite player is still Sammy Sosa, you deserve to be bludgeoned with a corked bat).
Three things I saw in the game that helped me come to my senses:
1) Aaron Harang
What's funny is that he didn't even have his best stuff. But how about this line?
7 IP, 6H, 1R (0 ER), 2BB, 5K
Remember, this is the same guy that posted a 6.66 ERA during Spring Training. But that's why they say Spring Training doesn't mean jack. His best pitch, his fastball, didn't have the same zip on it today that it did last year, but his offspeed stuff was lethal, and his pitch location was impeccable. What impressed me most was his curveball. Anyone else notice that it had a sharper, 12-6 arc to it? Is this something he was working on in the offseason? Harang always had good fastball and knew how to put it where he wanted. But as long as he mixes in his offspeed stuff with the effectiveness he had this afternoon, he could have an even better year than last year. And that's saying something, especially for the Reds.
Funny to think that we were running Jimmy Haynes out there for Opening Day just a few years ago. My, how things change.
2) Adam Dunn
The guy's still got the same prodigious power. His second home run was a freaking cannon shot. You know what's funny? As soon as he hit that second home run, I started to think, "Could he break Barry Bonds' single-season home run record this year?" A little too early for that, I think. But if he keeps swinging for the fences like that, could he? Maybe?
Possibly. And he'd strike out 215 times in the process.
But just once, I'd like to see him shorten up his swing and smack it to the opposite field. I love home runs as much as the next guy, but all this talk about Brook Jacobi helping him find success as an all-around hitter during Spring Training didn't manifest itself during the game today. Not like that turned out to be an issue. A couple of home runs suffice, I suppose.
3) Plate Discipline
I really think Carlos Zambrano is one of the top pitchers in the National League. He's got a nasty fastball and a mean streak, to boot. But as the FSN guys noted at the beginning of their broadcast, if a team can get inside his head, it can exploit his weaknesses.
Zambrano didn't have good stuff today. This isn't the same Zambrano that normally terrorizes the Reds. His control wasn't there, and in the fifth inning, the Reds did just what they should have. He was all over the place with his pitches. His ball-strike ratio by the end of his five innings of work was 45-47. The Reds waited for him to make a mistake. Dunn walked. Phillips was hit by a pitch. Griffey singled after working the count to 2-0. After Encarnacion hit into a force-out, Hatteberg came to bat and, in probably the most crucial at-bat of the game, worked a six-pitch walk to force in a run.
I expect a guy like Dunn to have the plate discipline, but there were too many times last year that the Reds would either swing at bad balls or not come through in the clutch. Although they left a whopping 18 men on base, the fifth inning alone gives me hope that this team could at least work to hitting with men on base on a consistent basis.
Those three things said, there was one glaring disappointment this afternoon: David Ross. Yes, he made a nice throw to nail Derrek Lee in the first inning, but at the plate, he was downright awful. He went 0-for-4, leaving five men on base, and swung at too many bad pitches, especially those down-and-away. After his meltdown at the end of last season, I didn't think he could come back and produce with the same consistency he displayed at the beginning of last year, but if his mechanics and discipline at the plate don't improve from today, maybe it was right that we spent to keep three catchers.
But let's try to keep this positive. Arroyo starts this Wednesday against Ted Lilly. If only Glendon Rusch was pitching for the Cubs...
"Could Bronson Arroyo break Barry Bonds' single season home run record?"
Nevermind.
The game really couldn't have gone much better for the Reds. They pitched well, they hit well (most of the time), and they played solid defense. Best of all, we didn't have to hear a peep out of those fair-weather yuppie Cubs fans that infest every city that the Cubs visit (let's get one thing out right away: I hate most Cub fans. Honestly, I respect those who really love the team, follow them, and know their baseball. But there are far too many Cub fans in this world that just pick them because they've got a nice ballpark and every other goddamn uneducated person in the world that doesn't have a favorite team just picks the Cubs by default. No disrespect to those of you who fall into the former category. But if your favorite player is still Sammy Sosa, you deserve to be bludgeoned with a corked bat).
Three things I saw in the game that helped me come to my senses:
1) Aaron Harang
What's funny is that he didn't even have his best stuff. But how about this line?
7 IP, 6H, 1R (0 ER), 2BB, 5K
Remember, this is the same guy that posted a 6.66 ERA during Spring Training. But that's why they say Spring Training doesn't mean jack. His best pitch, his fastball, didn't have the same zip on it today that it did last year, but his offspeed stuff was lethal, and his pitch location was impeccable. What impressed me most was his curveball. Anyone else notice that it had a sharper, 12-6 arc to it? Is this something he was working on in the offseason? Harang always had good fastball and knew how to put it where he wanted. But as long as he mixes in his offspeed stuff with the effectiveness he had this afternoon, he could have an even better year than last year. And that's saying something, especially for the Reds.
Funny to think that we were running Jimmy Haynes out there for Opening Day just a few years ago. My, how things change.
2) Adam Dunn
The guy's still got the same prodigious power. His second home run was a freaking cannon shot. You know what's funny? As soon as he hit that second home run, I started to think, "Could he break Barry Bonds' single-season home run record this year?" A little too early for that, I think. But if he keeps swinging for the fences like that, could he? Maybe?
Possibly. And he'd strike out 215 times in the process.
But just once, I'd like to see him shorten up his swing and smack it to the opposite field. I love home runs as much as the next guy, but all this talk about Brook Jacobi helping him find success as an all-around hitter during Spring Training didn't manifest itself during the game today. Not like that turned out to be an issue. A couple of home runs suffice, I suppose.
3) Plate Discipline
I really think Carlos Zambrano is one of the top pitchers in the National League. He's got a nasty fastball and a mean streak, to boot. But as the FSN guys noted at the beginning of their broadcast, if a team can get inside his head, it can exploit his weaknesses.
Zambrano didn't have good stuff today. This isn't the same Zambrano that normally terrorizes the Reds. His control wasn't there, and in the fifth inning, the Reds did just what they should have. He was all over the place with his pitches. His ball-strike ratio by the end of his five innings of work was 45-47. The Reds waited for him to make a mistake. Dunn walked. Phillips was hit by a pitch. Griffey singled after working the count to 2-0. After Encarnacion hit into a force-out, Hatteberg came to bat and, in probably the most crucial at-bat of the game, worked a six-pitch walk to force in a run.
I expect a guy like Dunn to have the plate discipline, but there were too many times last year that the Reds would either swing at bad balls or not come through in the clutch. Although they left a whopping 18 men on base, the fifth inning alone gives me hope that this team could at least work to hitting with men on base on a consistent basis.
Those three things said, there was one glaring disappointment this afternoon: David Ross. Yes, he made a nice throw to nail Derrek Lee in the first inning, but at the plate, he was downright awful. He went 0-for-4, leaving five men on base, and swung at too many bad pitches, especially those down-and-away. After his meltdown at the end of last season, I didn't think he could come back and produce with the same consistency he displayed at the beginning of last year, but if his mechanics and discipline at the plate don't improve from today, maybe it was right that we spent to keep three catchers.
But let's try to keep this positive. Arroyo starts this Wednesday against Ted Lilly. If only Glendon Rusch was pitching for the Cubs...
"Could Bronson Arroyo break Barry Bonds' single season home run record?"
Nevermind.
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